Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, April 30) — The Philippines appears close to the tail-end of the COVID-19 crisis, Acting Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Chua said Thursday, with the reopening of more businesses by May seen to hasten economic recovery.
While he acknowledged that uncertainties remain, the newly-minted Cabinet official said that the revival of several industries starting Friday could kick off the economy’s rebound, following a six-week slump due to the enhanced community quarantine in Luzon — the country’s biggest business hub.
“Tomorrow is May 1, you will see many provinces transferred from the ECQ status to the GCQ or general community quarantine status as announced by Malacañang. That, I think, is an indication that we are getting towards the end of the tunnel,” Chua said in an online forum organized by the Foreign Correspondents Association of the Philippines.
“I think there’s a strong possibility of a rebound by June so that we can begin the recovery phase, and we will prepare for that well in the coming weeks,” Chua added.
Chua said around 75 percent of residents in GCQ areas will be allowed to return to work or operate their businesses again starting Friday, subject to minimum health standards like the wearing of face masks, frequent and proper hand washing, and social distancing.
Some provinces and regions remain under strict stay-at-home rules, including Metro Manila, for the next two weeks.
The National Economic and Development Authority has been tapped to lead the crafting of the government’s COVID-19 recovery program, which will be implemented after authorities are able to keep the spread of local infections under control.
First-quarter growth data will be released next week, with Chua acknowledging that the January-March figure could already reflect the initial slump during the first two weeks of the Luzon lockdown and even the disruption due to the Taal volcano eruption in January, which affected business operations in Calabarzon.
The President’s economic team assumes a zero-growth scenario for the economy in 2020, a far cry from the 6 percent yearly average over the past few years. Economic losses are estimated at least ₱700 billion based on a survey on businesses, while Chua’s rough calculation point to as high as ₱1.1 trillion.
“The only thing we are sure of is we are not really sure about the trajectory of the economy,” Chua said, as he acknowledged that the Philippines had “bright prospects” entering 2020 until the COVID-19 crisis and the lockdown came.
Future decisions to lift the strict quarantine protocols nationwide would entail a balancing act that will weigh the “tradeoff between the health and economy,” he added.
For now, the government is focusing on the delivery of subsidies to the poorest families and displaced workers, Chua said, adding that cash aid through the Small Business Wage Subsidy Program will start releasing funds within the week.
Source: https://cnnphilippines.com/business/2020/4/30/NEDA-end-of-tunnel-growth-coronavirus.html